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The Impact of ENSO on Precipitation and Temperature#

Content creators: Olawale Ikuyajolu & Patrick Orenstein

Content reviewers: Marguerite Brown, Yuxin Zhou

Content editors: Zane Mitrevica, Natalie Steinemann, Jenna Pearson, Chi Zhang, Ohad Zivan

Production editors: Wesley Banfield, Jenna Pearson, Chi Zhang, Ohad Zivan

Our 2023 Sponsors: NASA TOPS, Google DeepMind, and CMIP

In this project you will work with climate model output, reanalysis data, and Niño 3.4 indices from CMIP5/6, ERA5, NOAA, and HadISST to understand the historical and future impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on rainfall and temperature. You will focus on variables like sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and precipitation. You will also be able to investigate the relationships between these variables and how they affect community efforts to prepare for the impacts of El Niño phases.

Recall from W1D1 that ENSO is a climate phenomena that originates in the tropical Pacific ocean but has global impacts on atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation. The two phases of ENSO are El Niño (warmer than average SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than average SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean). The Niño 3.4 region is an area in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that is often used for determining the phase of ENSO.

You may also reference W1D5, W2D1, and W2D4 tutorials on CMIP6 and read more about the different CMIP6 scenarios here. Please see the Resources section at the bottom of this notebook for more information.

Project Template#

Project Template

Note: The dashed boxes are socio-economic questions.

Data Exploration Notebook#

Project Setup#

# google colab installs

# !pip install condacolab &> /dev/null
# import condacolab
# condacolab.install()

# install all packages in one call (+ use mamba instead of conda)
# !mamba install xarray-datatree intake-esm gcsfs xmip aiohttp cartopy nc-time-axis cf_xarray xarrayutils "esmf<=8.3.1" xesmf &> /dev/null

# imports

import time

tic = time.time()

import intake
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import xarray as xr
import xesmf as xe
from xmip.preprocessing import combined_preprocessing
from xarrayutils.plotting import shaded_line_plot
from datatree import DataTree
from xmip.postprocessing import _parse_metric
import cartopy.crs as ccrs
import pooch
import os
import tempfile

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ModuleNotFoundError                       Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[2], line 7
      3 import time
      5 tic = time.time()
----> 7 import intake
      8 import numpy as np
      9 import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'intake'

# functions

%matplotlib inline

col = intake.open_esm_datastore(
    "https://storage.googleapis.com/cmip6/pangeo-cmip6.json"
)  # open an intake catalog containing the Pangeo CMIP cloud data


def load_cmip6(source_id, variable_id, member_id, table_id):  # load selected model
    cat = col.search(
        source_id=source_ids,
        variable_id=variable_id,
        member_id=member_id,
        table_id=table_id,
        grid_label="gn",
        experiment_id=[
            "historical",
            "ssp126",
            "ssp245",
            "ssp585",
        ],  # downloading the scenarios out of the total 5+historical
        require_all_on=["source_id"],
    )

    kwargs = dict(
        preprocess=combined_preprocessing,
        xarray_open_kwargs=dict(use_cftime=True),
        storage_options={"token": "anon"},
    )
    cat.esmcat.aggregation_control.groupby_attrs = ["source_id", "experiment_id"]
    dt = cat.to_datatree(**kwargs)

    return dt

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ModuleNotFoundError                       Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[3], line 3
      1 # functions
----> 3 get_ipython().run_line_magic('matplotlib', 'inline')
      5 col = intake.open_esm_datastore(
      6     "https://storage.googleapis.com/cmip6/pangeo-cmip6.json"
      7 )  # open an intake catalog containing the Pangeo CMIP cloud data
     10 def load_cmip6(source_id, variable_id, member_id, table_id):  # load selected model

File /Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/interactiveshell.py:2417, in InteractiveShell.run_line_magic(self, magic_name, line, _stack_depth)
   2415     kwargs['local_ns'] = self.get_local_scope(stack_depth)
   2416 with self.builtin_trap:
-> 2417     result = fn(*args, **kwargs)
   2419 # The code below prevents the output from being displayed
   2420 # when using magics with decodator @output_can_be_silenced
   2421 # when the last Python token in the expression is a ';'.
   2422 if getattr(fn, magic.MAGIC_OUTPUT_CAN_BE_SILENCED, False):

File /Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/magics/pylab.py:99, in PylabMagics.matplotlib(self, line)
     97     print("Available matplotlib backends: %s" % backends_list)
     98 else:
---> 99     gui, backend = self.shell.enable_matplotlib(args.gui.lower() if isinstance(args.gui, str) else args.gui)
    100     self._show_matplotlib_backend(args.gui, backend)

File /Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/interactiveshell.py:3588, in InteractiveShell.enable_matplotlib(self, gui)
   3567 def enable_matplotlib(self, gui=None):
   3568     """Enable interactive matplotlib and inline figure support.
   3569 
   3570     This takes the following steps:
   (...)
   3586         display figures inline.
   3587     """
-> 3588     from matplotlib_inline.backend_inline import configure_inline_support
   3590     from IPython.core import pylabtools as pt
   3591     gui, backend = pt.find_gui_and_backend(gui, self.pylab_gui_select)

File /Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/matplotlib_inline/__init__.py:1
----> 1 from . import backend_inline, config  # noqa
      2 __version__ = "0.1.6"  # noqa

File /Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/site-packages/matplotlib_inline/backend_inline.py:6
      1 """A matplotlib backend for publishing figures via display_data"""
      3 # Copyright (c) IPython Development Team.
      4 # Distributed under the terms of the BSD 3-Clause License.
----> 6 import matplotlib
      7 from matplotlib import colors
      8 from matplotlib.backends import backend_agg

ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'matplotlib'

# helper functions

def pooch_load(filelocation=None,filename=None,processor=None):
    shared_location='/home/jovyan/shared/Data/Projects/ENSO' # this is different for each day
    user_temp_cache=tempfile.gettempdir()
    
    if os.path.exists(os.path.join(shared_location,filename)):
        file = os.path.join(shared_location,filename)
    else:
        file = pooch.retrieve(filelocation,known_hash=None,fname=os.path.join(user_temp_cache,filename),processor=processor)

    return file

Dataset 1: Load CMIP6 Model of Your Choice#

Following W2D1 (Week 2 Day 1) tutorial notebooks:

  • We use the CESM2 model (source_id) and ensemble member r4i1p1f1 (member_id) in this template, but you are free to select any model and ensemble member. Make sure the member_id selected is available for your model. You can learn more about the member_id and other CMIP6 facets through the links at the end of the CMIP Resource Bank

  • load_cmip6 function load both historical and ssp585 (future: climate change)

To learn more about CMIP, including additional ways to access CMIP data, please see our CMIP Resource Bank and the CMIP website.

# pick your model

source_ids = "CESM2"

dm_tas = load_cmip6(
    source_ids, "tas", "r4i1p1f1", "Amon"
)  # tas is atmoerhpere temprature
dm_pr = load_cmip6(source_ids, "pr", "r4i1p1f1", "Amon")  # pr is precipitation rate
dm_sst = load_cmip6(
    source_ids, "tos", "r4i1p1f1", "Omon"
)  # tos is surface ocean temprature
print(
    dm_tas.keys()
)  # an example for one of the datatrees, you can duplicate this for the other DT

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[5], line 5
      1 # pick your model
      3 source_ids = "CESM2"
----> 5 dm_tas = load_cmip6(
      6     source_ids, "tas", "r4i1p1f1", "Amon"
      7 )  # tas is atmoerhpere temprature
      8 dm_pr = load_cmip6(source_ids, "pr", "r4i1p1f1", "Amon")  # pr is precipitation rate
      9 dm_sst = load_cmip6(
     10     source_ids, "tos", "r4i1p1f1", "Omon"
     11 )  # tos is surface ocean temprature

NameError: name 'load_cmip6' is not defined

# load cell areas for computing ocean surface temparuters means

dt_ocean_area = load_cmip6(source_ids, "areacello", "r4i1p1f1", "Ofx")
dt_atmos_area = load_cmip6(source_ids, "areacella", "r4i1p1f1", "fx")

dt_ocean_with_area = DataTree()
dt_atmos_with_area = DataTree()

for model, subtree in dm_sst.items():
    metric_ocean = dt_ocean_area[model]["historical"].ds["areacello"]
    dt_ocean_with_area[model] = subtree.map_over_subtree(_parse_metric, metric_ocean)

for model, subtree in dm_pr.items():
    metric_atmos = dt_atmos_area[model]["historical"].ds["areacella"]
    dt_atmos_with_area[model] = subtree.map_over_subtree(_parse_metric, metric_atmos)

print(dt_ocean_with_area.keys())

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[6], line 3
      1 # load cell areas for computing ocean surface temparuters means
----> 3 dt_ocean_area = load_cmip6(source_ids, "areacello", "r4i1p1f1", "Ofx")
      4 dt_atmos_area = load_cmip6(source_ids, "areacella", "r4i1p1f1", "fx")
      6 dt_ocean_with_area = DataTree()

NameError: name 'load_cmip6' is not defined

Dataset 2: Load Observations#

We use the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) v5 product, a widely used and trusted gridded compilation of historical data going back to 1854. Since the data is provided via an OPeNDAP server, we can load it directly without downloading anything.

For precipitation, we are using CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). We can download this dataset from the NOAA PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA website at https://psl.noaa.gov

For air temperature, we are using anomalies from NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis which we can also download from NOAA PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA website at https://psl.noaa.gov

# Ocean surface temprature 
filename_SST='sst.mnmean.nc'
url_SST = 'https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.ersst.v5/sst.mnmean.nc'

do_sst = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_SST,filename_SST), drop_variables=['time_bnds'])

# Precipitation rate (notice the units in the plot below)
filename_prec_rate='precip.mon.mean.nc'
url_prec_rate='https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/cmap/enh/precip.mon.mean.nc'
do_pr = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_prec_rate,filename_prec_rate))

# Air Temperature Anomalies
filename_tas='air.2x2.1200.mon.anom.comb.nc'
url_tas='https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/gistemp/combined/1200km/air.2x2.1200.mon.anom.comb.nc'
do_tas = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_tas,filename_tas))

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[7], line 5
      2 filename_SST='sst.mnmean.nc'
      3 url_SST = 'https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.ersst.v5/sst.mnmean.nc'
----> 5 do_sst = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_SST,filename_SST), drop_variables=['time_bnds'])
      7 # Precipitation rate (notice the units in the plot below)
      8 filename_prec_rate='precip.mon.mean.nc'

NameError: name 'xr' is not defined

We can now visualize the content of the dataset.

# code to print the shape, array names, etc of the dataset

# select just a single model and experiment
hist_precip = dm_pr["CESM2"]["historical"].ds.pr

fig, ax_july2000 = plt.subplots(
    ncols=1, nrows=1, figsize=[12, 6], subplot_kw={"projection": ccrs.Robinson()}
)

hist_precip.sel(time="2000-07").squeeze().plot(
    ax=ax_july2000,
    x="lon",
    y="lat",
    transform=ccrs.PlateCarree(),
    cmap="magma",
    robust=True,
)

ax_july2000.coastlines()
ax_july2000.set_title("July 2000")

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[8], line 4
      1 # code to print the shape, array names, etc of the dataset
      2 
      3 # select just a single model and experiment
----> 4 hist_precip = dm_pr["CESM2"]["historical"].ds.pr
      6 fig, ax_july2000 = plt.subplots(
      7     ncols=1, nrows=1, figsize=[12, 6], subplot_kw={"projection": ccrs.Robinson()}
      8 )
     10 hist_precip.sel(time="2000-07").squeeze().plot(
     11     ax=ax_july2000,
     12     x="lon",
   (...)
     16     robust=True,
     17 )

NameError: name 'dm_pr' is not defined

hist_sst = dm_sst["CESM2"]["historical"].ds.tos

fig, ax = plt.subplots(
    ncols=1,
    nrows=1,
    figsize=[12, 6],
    subplot_kw={"projection": ccrs.Robinson(central_longitude=180)},
)

ax.coastlines()
ax.gridlines()
hist_sst.sel(time="2000-07").squeeze().plot(
    ax=ax,
    x="lon",
    y="lat",
    transform=ccrs.PlateCarree(),
    vmin=-2,
    vmax=30,
    cmap="magma",
    robust=True,
)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[9], line 1
----> 1 hist_sst = dm_sst["CESM2"]["historical"].ds.tos
      3 fig, ax = plt.subplots(
      4     ncols=1,
      5     nrows=1,
      6     figsize=[12, 6],
      7     subplot_kw={"projection": ccrs.Robinson(central_longitude=180)},
      8 )
     10 ax.coastlines()

NameError: name 'dm_sst' is not defined

Dataset 3: Oceanic Nino Index#

There are several indices used to identify ENSO in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These indices are based on SST anomalies averaged across a given region and are used to define El Niño and La Niña events. Two indices that you will explore in this project are the Nino 3.4 Index and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Both of these indices are averaged over the same region in the tropical Pacific (5N-5S, 170W-120W), but use different running means and criteria for identifying El Niño and La Niña events (i.e. for ONI, SST anomalies must exceed +/- 0.5C for at least five consecutive months to be defined as an ENSO event, whereas for Nino 3.4, SST anomalies must exceed +/- 0.4C for at least six consecutive months). You can find additional information about these indices here. For now, we will download the ONI data that we used in W1D3.

# get El Nino data from W1D3 tutorial 7
filename_nino='t6_oceanic-nino-index.nc'
url_nino = "https://osf.io/8rwxb/download/"
oni = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_nino,filename_nino))
print(oni.keys())

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
NameError                                 Traceback (most recent call last)
Cell In[10], line 4
      2 filename_nino='t6_oceanic-nino-index.nc'
      3 url_nino = "https://osf.io/8rwxb/download/"
----> 4 oni = xr.open_dataset(pooch_load(url_nino,filename_nino))
      5 print(oni.keys())

NameError: name 'xr' is not defined

Further Reading#

Resources#

This tutorial uses data from the simulations conducted as part of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble.

For examples on how to access and analyze data, please visit the Pangeo Cloud CMIP6 Gallery

For more information on what CMIP is and how to access the data, please see this page.