Bonus Tutorial 6: Create your Socio-economic Scenario

Week 2, Day 2: The Socioeconomics of Climate Change

Content creators: Paul Heubel, Maximilian Puelma Touzel

Content reviewers: Mujeeb Abdulfatai, Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Jeffrey N. A. Aryee, Jenna Pearson, Abel Shibu, Ohad Zivan

Content editors: Paul Heubel, Jenna Pearson, Chi Zhang, Ohad Zivan

Production editors: Wesley Banfield, Jenna Pearson, Konstantine Tsafatinos, Chi Zhang, Ohad Zivan

Our 2024 Sponsors: CMIP, NFDI4Earth

Tutorial Objectives

Estimated timing of tutorial: 30 min

In this tutorial, you will model your own simplified Socioeconomic Pathway, a scenario of actions to limit global warming below 2°C. You take action against climate change within the socioeconomic model environment of the Climate Solution Simulator named En-ROADS. To examine its characteristics you address its challenges, winners/losers, political feasibility, narrative, and current trends.

You learn how to

• apply the knowledge you gained in last tutorials to design actions against climate change

• map your scenario narrative in the SSP

Install and import feedback gadget

Show code cell source Hide code cell source

# @title Install and import feedback gadget

!pip3 install vibecheck datatops --quiet

from vibecheck import DatatopsContentReviewContainer
def content_review(notebook_section: str):
    return DatatopsContentReviewContainer(
        "",  # No text prompt
        notebook_section,
        {
            "url": "https://pmyvdlilci.execute-api.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/klab",
            "name": "comptools_4clim",
            "user_key": "l5jpxuee",
        },
    ).render()


feedback_prefix = "W2D2_T6"

[notice] A new release of pip is available: 24.2 -> 24.3.1
[notice] To update, run: pip install --upgrade pip

Video 1:

Section 1: CO\(_2\) Removal

While substantial emissions mitigations are necessary to reduce future climate suffering, they can not make up for the hundreds of billions of tons of CO\(_2\) that humans have already emitted. However, both natural and technological methods for removing CO\(_2\) from the atmosphere exist. Although they are presently miniscule compared to the tens-of-gigatons scale of global emissions, some experts expect that CO\(_2\) removal methods will play a key role in the future once major mitigation goals have been accomplished.

Video 1 briefly explains how Carbon Removal is addressed in EN-ROADS. Keep its representation in mind for the following exercises.

Exercise 1: Create your Solution Scenario and Evaluate it

Estimated timing: 20 minutes

1. Open En-ROADS here. (Note the control panel is available in various languages - check the left of the panel of the simulator that should by default show “English”.)

2. Develop a scenario: By moving the sliders and changing the assumptions, find a scenario (i.e. a combination of slider positions of different variables) that results in less than 2°C of temperature increase by the end of the century. Use the following cheatsheet if needed.

Note that your changes are reflected in the light blue graph, while the baseline scenario remains a black line.

3. Answer the following questions:

   1. Your Plan: What are the top 3-5 most important policies in your strategy? (For example, the most important sliders that you moved). Share your scenario link and a screenshot of your final En-ROADS dashboard.

   If you want to save your scenario, export it via a click on the Share your scenario button in the top right of the panel, and select ‘Copy Scenario Link’.

   2. Political Feasibility: To implement your proposals, what actions and priorities are needed over the next two years in businesses, civil society, government, and the public?

   3. Winners & Losers: Who would be the biggest winners and losers globally in your proposed future? Create a table with two columns for winners and losers.

   4. Narrative: Map your ideas in the narrative space that was introduced in Tutorial 5.

   5. Hope: What trends in the world give you hope that your proposals are possible?

Submit your feedback

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# @title Submit your feedback
content_review(f"{feedback_prefix}_Exercise_1")

Summary

In this last tutorial, you went from model to action by designing your own socioeconomic modeling scenario to limit global warming below 2°C by the end of the century. You reflected on its challenges, political feasibility, inherent winners and losers of your approach, and finally, the narrative that you chose. At the end of the day, you collected observations of actions and trends you are making in your region, globally, and in your daily life that give hope. That hope and various solutions exist, which one has to combine, and that only action is needed, might be the most important lesson of today.

Resources

This tutorial is inspired by teaching material from Climate Interactive and other documents. A few important resources are linked below:

• En-ROADS documentation

• En-ROADS User Guide PDF

• Guided Assignment - Simulating Climate Futures in En-ROADS: Short Version

Planetary Crisis Planning Computer Games Play the games listed below to explore alternative societal futures

• The Climate Game

• Half Earth Socialism.